Abstract: The cyclical economic fluctuations of pre-modern China have long been of interest to scholars, but existing explanations lack counterfactual evidence and suffer from endogeneity issues. This study attempts to test the impact of extreme weather on economic development in the Qing Dynasty. Based on the prefecture-level panel data from 1644-1911, we find that extreme weather led to an 8.98% decrease in population density, driven mainly by droughts. This effect remains robust to controlling for other confounders such as technological progress and positive checks, employing alternative proxies for economic development, and time series analysis. Additionally, we find that the population recovery following extreme weather events was consistent with the Malthusian model, and fiscal surpluses could hedge the negative impacts of extreme weather. This study improves our understanding of the role of extreme weather in the economic dynamics of pre-modern China.

Key words: extreme weather, economic growth, population density, Malthusian model