Abstract:

Digital inclusive finance expected to play an important role in the process of activating county-level endogenous development capacity and advancing common prosperity. This paper first theoretically analyzes the inherent consistency between the development of digital inclusive finance and county-level endogenous development capacity, as well as the mechanisms through which digital inclusive finance activates endogenous development capacity. Then, based on county-level data from 2014 to 2023, a comprehensive evaluation index system for endogenous development capacity is constructed using machine learning methods, and the impact and heterogeneity of digital inclusive finance on such capacity are empirically examined. The research results show that the development of digital inclusive finance can effectively activate county-level endogenous development capacity, thereby contributing to the realization of common prosperity. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital inclusive finance promotes endogenous development capacity through the integration of the digital and real economies and the return of labor force. Further analysis indicates that the construction of digital infrastructure has a positive moderating effect on the activation of endogenous development capacity by digital inclusive finance. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that in regions with weaker provincial capital spillover effects, higher fiscal expenditure levels, and better–developed financial infrastructure, the promoting effect of digital inclusive finance on endogenous development capacity is stronger. This paper provides new evidence for activating county–level endogenous development capacity and offers a new perspective for achieving common prosperity with Chinese characteristics.

Key words:

common prosperity, digital inclusive finance, endogenous development capacity, machine learning