中国经济问题 ›› 2025›› Issue (06): 50-.

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中欧班列开通是否提升了城市出口技术复杂度

  

  • 出版日期:2025-12-15 发布日期:2026-01-24

  • Online:2025-12-15 Published:2026-01-24

摘要:

中欧班列作为“一带一路”倡议的旗舰项目和明星品牌,在逆全球化和贸易保护主义抬头背景下,其开通运营标志着西部陆路国际贸易运输大动脉正式全线贯通。本文运用交叠双重差分方法识别了中欧班列开通对中国城市出口技术复杂度的因果影响及其作用机制。研究发现,相较于未开通中欧班列城市,开通城市的出口技术复杂度明显更高,中欧班列开通显著提升了城市出口技术复杂度。机制检验表明。人力资本效应、技术创新效应和产业升级效应是中欧班列开通提升城市出口技术复杂度的主要作用渠道。异质性分析显示,中欧班列开通对城市出口技术复杂度的提升效应在大城市、中西部区域和政策重点地区样本中更明显。最后,扩展性分析发现,中欧班列当前还未形成显著区域溢出效应,其辐射带动能力还有待加强。本研究为建设西部陆地运输新通道,培育国际合作和竞争新优势提供了有益的经验证据与政策启示。

关键词:

中欧班列, 出口贸易, 技术复杂度, 跨境铁路

Abstract:

As a flagship project and iconic brand of the Belt and Road Initiative, the China-Europe Railway Express (CRE) marks the full establishment of a major land-based artery for international trade in western China, particularly against the backdrop of rising deglobalization and trade protectionism. This study employs a staggered difference–in–differences (DID) method to identify the causal impact of the CRE on the export technological complexity of Chinese cities, a- long with its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that, compared with cities without CRE access, cities with CRE operations exhibit significantly higher export technological complexity.The launch of the CRE has notably enhanced the technological sophistication of urban exports. Mechanism analysis reveals that improvements in human capital, technological innovation, and industrial upgrading are the primary channels through which the CRE enhances export complexity. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the positive effect of the CRE is more pronounced in large cities, in central and western regions, and in key policy-prioritized areas. Finally, extended analysis suggests that the CRE has not yet produced significant regional spillover effects, implying that its capacity for broader regional stimulation remains to be strengthened. This study provides empirical evidence and policy implications for building a new land-based trade corridor in western China and fostering new advantages in international cooperation and competition.

Key words:

China-Europe Railway Express, export trade, technological complexity, cross-border railway