中国经济问题 ›› 2025›› Issue (06): 98-.

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垂直结构、人才配置与经济复苏路径

  

  • 出版日期:2025-12-15 发布日期:2026-01-24

  • Online:2025-12-15 Published:2026-01-24

摘要:

本文构建理论模型,分析了中国转型期特殊的垂直结构如何通过人才配置影响宏观经济绩效,以期为中国现阶段深化供给侧结构性改革、推动经济复苏提供启示。将人才要素引入纵向寡占模型,考虑人才在上游国企就业和下游民企创业中的配置问题。模型发现,在经济下行冲击下,垂直结构对经济复苏产生两种效应:第一,具有市场力量的上游部门的利润相对于下游部门受到了更大的负面影响,对人才的吸引力相对减弱,使得人才倾向于从上游就业部门流向下游创业部门,有利于缓冲经济下行冲击,促进经济复苏;第二,上游规模效应受损 ,适度减少上游竞争主体数量有助于通过恢复规模效应而提高社会福利,但同时又会提高上游市场力量,导致人才从下游创业部门流向上游就业部门,加剧经济下行压力。当租金分配效率较低时,第二种效应大于第一种效应;而当租金分配效率较高时,第一种效应大于第二种效应,此时,规模效应与人才配置优化实现有机统一,从而缓解经济下行,助力经济复苏。

关键词:

上游垄断 , 创业, 经济下行, 规模效应, 租金分配

Abstract:

This paper constructs a theoretical model to analyze how the special vertical structure in China's transition period affects macroeconomic performance through talent allocation, with a view to providing insights for deepening supply-side structural reform and promoting economic recovery at this stage in China. The talent factor is introduced into the vertical oligopoly model to considers the allocation of talent in upstream SOE employment and downstream private enterprise entrepreneurship. The model finds that under a downward economic shock, the vertical structure has two effects on economic recovery: first, the profits of the upstream sector with market power are more negatively affected relative to the downstream sector, and the attractiveness of the talent is relatively weakened, which makes talent tend to flow from the upstream employment sector to the downstream entrepreneurship sector,thereby buffering the downward economic shock and promoting economic recovery; second, the scale effect of the upstream is impaired, and a moderate reduction in the number of upstream competitors helps to improve social welfare by restoring the scale effect, but simultaneously increases upstream market power, leading to the flow of talent from the downstream entrepreneurial sector to the upstream employment sector, thereby exacerbating downward economic pressure. When the efficiency of rent allocation is low, the second effect dominates the first; when the efficiency of rent allocation is high, the first effect dominates the second. At this point, the scale effect and talent allocation optimization achieve organic unity, mitigating economic downturn and facilitating recovery.

Key words:

upstream monopoly, entrepreneurship, economic downturn, the scale effect, the rent allocation