关键词:

二元边际, 球盒模型, 自由贸易协定, 贸易深化

Abstract: Due to the lack of theoretical basis, it has been challenging to directly compare the values of trade intensive margin and extensive margin. Based on the “Balls-and-Bins model”, this paper introduces the concept of “relative-dual-margin” (extensive margin relative to intensive margin) to address this issue. Data analysis reveals that the countries' exports tend to grow increasingly along the intensive margin, and that signing free trade agreements can significantly improve the relative-dual-margin, thereby deepening international trade. Even when considering the impact of each country's economic growth rate, the size of “bines” and adjusting the time interval definition of new trade", the results remain robust. Therefore, China should focus on the opportunities of trade deepening brought by global trade liberalization and actively leverage free trade agreements and trade facilitation to promote the further development of international trade.

Key words:

due margin, Balls-and-Bins model, free trade agreement, trade deepening